Most predictions about Connor McDavid‘s future stop at whether he stays or goes. Frank Seravalli took it a step further in his first column for Sportsnet, describing exactly how a departure would unfold, and the mechanism he lands on would leave the Edmonton Oilers with next to nothing.
The prediction came as part of a list of 32 bold calls, one for each franchise.
“Connor McDavid does not sign a contract extension in Edmonton next summer, when first eligible, and plays out 2027-28,” Seravalli wrote. “My belief: Though undecided, if McDavid is ultimately changing teams, it won’t be via trade, as he won’t want to weaken the next team before his arrival. Think small sign-and-trade with a piece for his rights, similar to Mitch Marner.”
McDavid is currently in the first year of the two-year, $12.5 million extension he signed last October, a deal widely viewed as a discount taken to give Edmonton room to build a contender around him. That window hasn’t gone to plan so far. After reaching consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, the Oilers went out in the first round last spring, and Mike Babcock was brought in to replace Kris Knoblauch in June.
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The Marner comparison is the key to the whole thing. On July 1, 2025, Marner agreed to an eight-year, $96 million extension with Toronto and was then immediately traded to Vegas, with the Maple Leafs receiving Nicolas Roy in return. The player gets the term and money only his existing club can offer, the new team gets him without surrendering a haul, and the old team collects a modest consolation piece rather than watching him walk for free.
Seravalli’s argument is that McDavid’s no-move clause makes a conventional blockbuster unlikely, because agreeing to one would mean stripping his next team of assets before he even arrives. That leaves Edmonton with a choice between a token return for his rights or nothing at all in free agency.
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It’s worth noting how much of this rests on an assumption. McDavid has given no public indication he wants out, was one of the players who personally signed off on the Babcock hiring, and plays for one of the league’s most profitable franchises with a rising cap that removes any financial obstacle to paying him.
He isn’t short of company in predicting an exit, though. Jeff O’Neill said on TSN last week that he puts the odds of McDavid re-signing in Edmonton at zero, while the rest of that panel landed between 23 and 70 percent.
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