Connor McDavid has 26 points in nine games, which is 200-point pace and then some over the 84-game season the league moved to this year. Will he get there? History says probably not, and it is not close: of the ten player-seasons that were on 200-point pace through 10 games since 1979-80, two finished above 200 and eight did not.
That is not a guess. We looked up every fast start we could find, worked out the pace it implied, and then what the player actually finished on.
Every 200-point pace through 10 games since 1979-80, and what became of it
| Player | Season | Pts in first 10 | Full-season pace | Finished on | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Lemieux | 1988-89 | 37 | 296 | 199 | 76 |
| Mario Lemieux | 1992-93 | 32 | 269 | 160 | 60 |
| Mario Lemieux | 1995-96 | 32 | 262 | 161 | 70 |
| Pat LaFontaine | 1992-93 | 29 | 244 | 148 | 84 |
| Wayne Gretzky | 1984-85 | 30 | 240 | 208 | 80 |
| Wayne Gretzky | 1986-87 | 28 | 224 | 183 | 79 |
| Mario Lemieux | 1986-87 | 26 | 208 | 107 | 63 |
| Marcel Dionne | 1979-80 | 26 | 208 | 137 | 80 |
| Wayne Gretzky | 1993-94 | 24 | 202 | 130 | 81 |
| Wayne Gretzky | 1983-84 | 25 | 200 | 205 | 74 |
Pace is calculated against that season’s actual schedule: 80 games in the 1980s, 84 in 1992-93 and 1993-94, 82 from 1995-96.
Two of the ten finished above 200, and both are Gretzky. The other eight lost between 32 and 109 points against their own start.
Why did the biggest starts produce the smallest seasons?
Injuries, almost every time. Mario Lemieux owns the three fastest starts in the table and none of them finished a full season. In 1988-89 he had 37 points in 10 games — a 296-point pace, the most absurd number in modern hockey — and finished on 199 in 76 games, still the highest total by anyone not named Gretzky. In 1992-93 he was at 32 through 10, then missed two months for Hodgkin’s treatment and came back to win the scoring title in 60 games. In 1995-96, another 32, another 70-game season.
Gretzky’s 1993-94 is the cleanest example of a simple fade: 24 points in 10, a 202-point pace, 81 games played, 130 points. Nothing dramatic happened. He just stopped scoring at that rate, which is normal.
And Lemieux’s 1986-87 is the warning the other way: 26 points in 10 at age 21, then 63 games and 107 points.
READ MORE: Connor McDavid’s points against every NHL team
Gretzky’s 215-point season was not on 200-point pace
Gretzky scored 215 points in 1985-86. It is still the record. After 10 games he had 24 points — a 192-point pace, below the bar for this list entirely. He scored his 215 by being merely very good in October and then producing 191 points in his last 70 games.
The fastest start in the table belongs to the season that finished on 199. The record season does not appear in the table at all.
So will Connor McDavid get 200 points?
The honest answer has three parts, and none of them is a number.
One: he is starting faster than anyone in 30 years. The last player on this list is Lemieux in 1995-96. Nobody in the McDavid era, including McDavid’s own 153-point season in 2022-23 — 22 points in his first 10 — has come near the bar.
Two: the base rate is brutal. Eight of ten qualifying starts ended below 200, and six ended below 165.
Three: the arithmetic is still live. To reach 200 in 84 games he needs 174 points in his remaining 75, which is 2.32 a game. He is running at 2.89. Nothing about that requires him to improve; it requires him to stay healthy and give back less than a fifth of his current rate.
That is what everyone arguing about this is actually arguing about. Elliotte Friedman has already made his call, an Oilers insider went considerably further, and Bryan Hayes put the line somewhere else again.
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